Russia may be playing a more active role than it has publicly acknowledged in Iran's attacks on United States military sites in the Middle East, according to recent reports. On Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Secretary Sergey Lavrov in Manila, where the war in Ukraine was the top agenda item, but the meeting was held under the shadow of fresh reports suggesting Russian involvement in Iran's attacks.
Russia Iran Relations and CIA Site Attacks
For context, relations between Russia and Iran have deepened in recent years, particularly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Tehran has provided Moscow with critical weapons, including the Shahed drone and the Fateh-110 ballistic missile, to aid in its war efforts. In return, Russia has allegedly helped Iran improve the accuracy of its Shahed-136s by supplying the Kometa-M anti-jamming navigation system.
According to reports, Iranian drone attacks on CIA facilities, specifically on the embassy in Saudi Arabia, have prompted US intelligence to investigate possible Russian involvement. Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at the Centre of International Research at Sciences Po university in Paris, explained that Russian involvement in Iran's targeting was a "realistic" theory, given the precision and effectiveness of the attacks.
Iran's Capabilities and Russian Involvement
Iran has its own human intelligence-gathering networks that are "often overlooked" when it comes to the targets it selects in the region, Grajewski noted. However, she also stated that Iran's own tactics are proving to have more of an impact on the course of the war than any Russian intelligence help. "Russian involvement isn't the fundamental tipping point for the Iranians. Iran already had these capabilities; they've already developed an extensive drone force, extensive missile force," she said.
The US and Iran have intensified their exchange of attacks in recent days, with US strikes on Iran continuing for the 12th consecutive night. Iran has struck back with attacks on multiple Gulf countries and Jordan, highlighting the escalating tensions in the region.
What's Next for the Conflict
As the conflict continues to escalate, it remains to be seen what role Russia will play in Iran's attacks on US military sites. Grajewski explained that the US war with Iran serves to benefit Moscow to "some extent" as it diverts attention away from the Ukraine war and has the potential of weakening the US's global power. Readers should watch for further developments in the region, including potential diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict and any further reports on Russian involvement in Iran's attacks.
