Greater Manchester will elect a new mayor on Thursday, replacing Andy Burnham in the UK’s largest-ever by-election, with more than two million voters deciding who will lead the region’s Combined Authority.
The contest marks the first electoral test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer since his July victory, set against a backdrop of Labour’s national polling lead—dubbed the “Burnham bounce”—in a region where the outgoing mayor remains deeply popular.
Labour’s Bev Craig poised for victory
Labour’s Bev Craig, leader of Manchester City Council since 2021, is forecast to win with 65% of the second-round vote, according to a More in Common poll, though she is not expected to secure the 50% first-choice threshold needed for an outright first-round victory.
Craig, who served as Burnham’s economy and business lead, has campaigned on continuity, emphasising her decade-long collaboration with the outgoing mayor. “She’s been with Burnham all the way through,” one voter told The Independent, praising her focus on “things that people want to make better for them” rather than abstract policies.
If elected, Craig would become Greater Manchester’s first female mayor, inheriting a role Burnham dominated since its 2017 inception, winning all 10 boroughs in his 2021 and 2024 re-elections with over 60% of the vote.
Battle for second place intensifies
While Labour is favoured to win, the race for runner-up has drawn attention. Reform UK’s Sian Astley is polling at 35% in the second round, but the Greens—who captured the Gorton and Denton parliamentary seat earlier this year—are making inroads.
“The Greens have got their heads screwed on,” said one voter, citing their policies on individual rights. However, others remain sceptical: “I wasn’t convinced they were ready to run a city,” another said after meeting a Green representative.
Reform, despite losses in recent by-elections, has gained traction in outer boroughs like Wigan and Bolton, where Labour’s grip has weakened. “There’s a lot of people who were going to vote Reform until Burnham stood in Makerfield,” noted one Rochdale voter, highlighting the former mayor’s local influence.
Voters demand action on housing and poverty
Homelessness and housing emerged as key concerns among voters. “You can’t fix it through vibes alone,” said one former council worker, stressing the need for government investment in new housing and poverty alleviation—areas beyond the mayor’s direct control.
Others expressed frustration with Labour’s direction, with one lifelong supporter calling the party “a mess” under Starmer. “Blair was the beginning of the end,” they added, while another voter prioritised stopping Reform to preserve community cohesion.
The seven candidates vying to succeed Burnham include Reform’s Astley, the Greens’ Geraldine Coggins, Conservatives’ Phil Eckersley, and independents Marcus Farmer and Marlon West. Results will be announced on Friday, offering an early verdict on Starmer’s leadership and the region’s political trajectory.
