Canada must align with the United States, not China, to maintain its influence as a middle power, according to critiques of Prime Minister Mark Carney's global strategy. U.S. Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby stated Carney's idea of a middle-powers coalition lacks a coherent basis for alignment.

US Alliance Crucial for Middle Power Influence

Prime Minister Mark Carney argued in his spring 2026 Davos address that nations should band together to defend interests in a dangerous world. He proposed middle powers unite against great powers to build a new global order. However, this strategy overlooks a crucial reality: maximizing middle power influence depends on remaining within the U.S. orbit.

Colby echoed this sentiment on X (formerly Twitter) on July 14, calling the middle-powers coalition concept a "faulty understanding of international relations." He asserted that these countries do not have a clear basis for such an alignment.

The Shifting Global Order

Middle powers often rely on great power patronage for their influence. They face economic and military vulnerabilities to larger states, conflicting national interests, and geographic distances. This makes insulating themselves from great power politics difficult.

The influence middle powers once held stemmed from a unique historical period. The United States, after World War II and the Cold War, established a rules-based international order. This system mediated tensions and sheltered lesser powers, allowing them influence beyond their objective power.

The global landscape has changed. Rising hostile states and the U.S. focus on containment are dismantling the rules-based order. This marks the end of the middle powers' era of amplified influence.

Canada's Strategic Imperative

Many middle powers allowed their militaries to weaken and became economically entangled with China. They are now unprepared for a return to traditional power politics.

Canada and similar nations are dependent on the U.S. for protection. Maintaining this alliance requires a strategy focused on not being a burden, proving useful, and avoiding alignment with U.S. adversaries.

Carney's current actions, such as investing in military capabilities and stating Canadian trade and defense efforts will "help make America great again," align with this strategic logic. These steps aim to demonstrate value and capability to the United States.

Path Forward for Coalitions of the Capable

To maximize influence and guard against U.S. overreach, middle powers should form "coalitions of the capable." These groups should:

  • Advance shared strategic objectives with the United States.
  • Build necessary military capabilities at the alliance level.
  • Reduce vulnerability to adversaries, particularly China and Russia.

These coalitions must be flexible, focused, and efficient. They should prioritize concrete impacts over abstract ideals. Shared values will distinguish allies from adversaries, with defending their way of life against authoritarian states being paramount.